Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium · Analysis updated 13:44 UTC
Al-Jazira vs Muharraq Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 0.72 for Muharraq, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Al-Jazira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
75.0% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Jazira home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Muharraq away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Jazira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 33% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Al-Jazira and 0.72 for Muharraq, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.9%
- 0–017.4%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–112.5%
- 2–09.2%
Recent form
Al-Jazira
- 2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Khorfakkan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Wahda FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Gol Gohar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasr · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 3-1 (W)
Muharraq
- 2026-09-15T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Arkadag · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Manama · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ittifaq Maqaba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs A'Ali · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AFC Champions League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Wahda FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Nasaf | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Khalidiya | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Al Kuwait | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Arkadag | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Al-Jazira | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Gol Gohar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Muharraq | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Al-Nahda | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Al Taawon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Al Faisaly | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Al Shorta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Al Hussein | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | East Bengal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Al Seeb | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Persib Bandung | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Viettel | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Melbourne Victory | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | FC Seoul | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Adelaide United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Home United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | BG Pathum United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Wofoo Tai Po | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Shanghai Shenhua | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Tampines Rovers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 4 | Svay Rieng | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 1 | Phnom Penh Crown | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Gangwon FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Kitchee | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Kuching FA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 75.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.