· Analysis updated 17:50 UTC
Al Karkh vs Erbil Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Al Karkh and 1.62 for Erbil, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Erbil the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Erbil win
54.9% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Erbil away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Erbil to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 20% / 25% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Al Karkh and 1.62 for Erbil, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.3%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–210.8%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Al Karkh
Erbil
- 2026-09-18T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Karbala · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Karma · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Diyala · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Shorta · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Minaa Basra · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-25T15:30:00.000Z · Al Karkh 0-1 Erbil (Iraqi League)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · Al Karkh 0-1 Erbil (Iraqi League)
- 2026-01-27T12:00:00.000Z · Al Karkh 1-1 Erbil (Iraqi League)
- 2025-06-29T16:00:00.000Z · Al Karkh 3-1 Erbil (Iraqi League)
- 2025-01-19T11:30:00.000Z · Al Karkh 2-4 Erbil (Iraqi League)
- 2024-05-08T12:45:00.000Z · Al Karkh 0-0 Erbil (Iraqi League)
- 2024-03-28T18:30:00.000Z · Al Karkh 0-0 Erbil (Iraqi League)
- 2023-06-25T18:30:00.000Z · Al Karkh 0-0 Erbil (Iraqi League)
- 2023-02-01T11:30:00.000Z · Al Karkh 3-1 Erbil (Iraqi League)
- 2022-07-03T15:00:00.000Z · Al Karkh 1-2 Erbil (Iraqi League)
Iraqi League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Newroz | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Naft | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Al Zawra'a | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Erbil | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 6 | Al Shorta | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 7 | Al-Jolan SC | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Duhok | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Diyala | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Al Minaa Basra | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Al Talaba | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Mosul | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Zakho | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Gharraf | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 17 | Al Karkh | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 | Al Kahrabaa | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 | Naft Maysan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Karbala | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Erbil win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.