· Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Al Karkh vs Naft Maysan Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for Al Karkh and 1.10 for Naft Maysan, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Al Karkh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Karkh win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Naft Maysan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Karkh to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 25% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.64 goals for Al Karkh and 1.10 for Naft Maysan, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Al Karkh
Naft Maysan
- 2026-10-16T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Diyala · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-08T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Erbil · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Karkh · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Talaba · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Minaa Basra · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Iraqi League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Karma | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Newroz | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Naft | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Al Zawra'a | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | Erbil | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 |
| 6 | Al Shorta | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 7 | Al-Jolan SC | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Duhok | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Diyala | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Al Minaa Basra | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Al Talaba | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Mosul | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Zakho | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Gharraf | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 17 | Al Karkh | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 | Al Kahrabaa | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 19 | Naft Maysan | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Karbala | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Karkh win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.