Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium · Referee Faisal Suleiman Al-Balawi, Saudi Arabia · Analysis updated 13:04 UTC
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Shabab Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.07 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Al Khaleej Saihat the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.9% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Khaleej Saihat home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Shabab away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Khaleej Saihat to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 29% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.07 for Al Shabab, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–111.3%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Al Khaleej Saihat
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Nassr · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Al Riyadh · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs NEOM · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-25T16:05:00.000Z · A vs Abha · 1-1 (D)
Al Shabab
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Taawon · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Fayha · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Kholood · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:05:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hazm · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 22 |
| 2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 21 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 19 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 5 | NEOM | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 16 |
| 6 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 15 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Al Diriyah | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Al Kholood | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Al-Hazm | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -8 | 9 |
| 13 | Al Shabab | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Al-Fayha | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Al-Faisaly FC | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
| 18 | Abha | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.