Al Khor Stadium · Analysis updated 08:17 UTC
Al-Khor vs Al-Gharafa B Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.83 expected goals for Al-Khor and 0.99 for Al-Gharafa B, a combined total of 3.82. That distribution gives Al-Khor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Al-Khor win
75.4% probability
Expected goals
2.83 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Khor home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Khor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 14% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.83 goals for Al-Khor and 0.99 for Al-Gharafa B, a combined 3.82 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 59%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–08.8%
- 2–18.7%
- 3–08.3%
- 3–18.2%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
Al-Khor
- 2026-10-15T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Rayyan SC B · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs UMM Salal · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Muaither SC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs UMM Salal · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Kharaitiyat · 1-3 (L)
Al-Gharafa B
- 2026-10-14T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Mesaimeer · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Muaither SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al-Markhiya · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Bidda SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2017-04-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Markhiya · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Al Kharaitiyat | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Al Mesaimeer | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Al Bidda SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Waab | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | UMM Salal | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 7 |
| 7 | Muaither SC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Al-Khor | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Qatar U23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Al Shamal II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Gharafa B | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 12 | Al Rayyan SC B | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Khor win, at 75.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.