Al Khor Stadium · Analysis updated 15:10 UTC
Al-Khor vs UMM Salal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Al-Khor and 1.39 for UMM Salal, a combined total of 2.04. That distribution gives UMM Salal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
UMM Salal win
54.8% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 1.39
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Khor home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UMM Salal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UMM Salal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 18% / 28% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for Al-Khor and 1.39 for UMM Salal, a combined 2.04 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.1%
- 0–013.0%
- 0–212.5%
- 1–111.8%
- 1–08.5%
Recent form
Al-Khor
- 2026-10-15T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Rayyan SC B · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs UMM Salal · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Muaither SC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · A vs UMM Salal · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Kharaitiyat · 1-3 (L)
UMM Salal
- 2026-08-30T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Mesaimeer · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-25T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Qatar U23 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokeren-Temse · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-05-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Gharafa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-27T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli Doha · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
QSL Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Shamal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Al-Duhail SC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | UMM Salal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Qatar SC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Al Waab | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Al Wakrah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Lusail City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Muaither SC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Al Shahaniya | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Al-Rayyan SC | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Al Ahli Doha | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Al Kharaitiyat | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 | Al-Markhiya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Al-Sailiya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Al-Arabi SC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Al Mesaimeer | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Al-Khor | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 19 | Al Bidda SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is UMM Salal win, at 54.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.