· Analysis updated 01:37 UTC
Al Mabarrah vs Tripoli SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.76 expected goals for Al Mabarrah and 1.59 for Tripoli SC, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Tripoli SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tripoli SC win
57.3% probability
Expected goals
0.76 – 1.59
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tripoli SC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tripoli SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 18% / 25% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.76 goals for Al Mabarrah and 1.59 for Tripoli SC, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 42%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.2%
- 0–212.1%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–29.2%
Recent form
Al Mabarrah
Tripoli SC
- 2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tadamon Sour · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Mabarrah · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Akhaa Al Ahli · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahed · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-05-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ghazieh · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jwaaya FC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Tadamon Sour | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Safa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Al Ahed | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Tripoli SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 6 | Al Nejmeh | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Al Ansar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Mabarrah | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 9 | Al Hikma | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 10 | Reyady Abaseya | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 11 | Shabab Al Sahel | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 12 | Al Akhaa Al Ahli | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tripoli SC win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.