Grand Hamad Stadium · Analysis updated 07:09 UTC
Al-Markhiya vs Al Waab Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Al-Markhiya and 0.73 for Al Waab, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Al-Markhiya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Al-Markhiya win
58.5% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Markhiya home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Al Waab away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Markhiya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 25% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Al-Markhiya and 0.73 for Al Waab, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.5%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–111.3%
- 0–09.6%
- 2–19.1%
Recent form
Al-Markhiya
- 2026-10-14T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Shamal II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli Doha · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Lusail City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Rayyan SC B · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Gharafa B · 3-0 (W)
Al Waab
- 2026-10-14T16:45:00.000Z · H vs UMM Salal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Lusail City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Mesaimeer · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Qatar U23 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Shamal II · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Al Kharaitiyat | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Al Mesaimeer | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Al Bidda SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Waab | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | UMM Salal | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 7 |
| 7 | Muaither SC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Al-Khor | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Qatar U23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Al Shamal II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Gharafa B | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 12 | Al Rayyan SC B | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Markhiya win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.