Grand Hamad Stadium · Analysis updated 15:48 UTC
Al-Markhiya vs Lusail City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al-Markhiya and 0.99 for Lusail City, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Al-Markhiya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Markhiya win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Markhiya home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Lusail City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Markhiya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Al-Markhiya and 0.99 for Lusail City, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.5%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Al-Markhiya
- 2026-09-29T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli Doha · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Lusail City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Rayyan SC B · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Gharafa B · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Khor · 3-0 (W)
Lusail City
- 2026-10-10T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Shahaniya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Waab · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Markhiya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Gharafa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Wakrah · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Al Kharaitiyat | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Al Mesaimeer | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Al Bidda SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Waab | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | UMM Salal | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 7 |
| 7 | Muaither SC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Al-Khor | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Qatar U23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Al Shamal II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Gharafa B | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 12 | Al Rayyan SC B | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Markhiya win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.