Borg El Arab Stadium · Referee M. Wafa · Analysis updated 19:27 UTC
AL Masry vs Al Ittihad Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for AL Masry and 1.20 for Al Ittihad, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Al Ittihad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.2% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AL Masry home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Ittihad away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Ittihad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 31% / 29% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for AL Masry and 1.20 for Al Ittihad, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–113.1%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–010.9%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
AL Masry
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ittihad · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrojet · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyramids FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs El Mokawloon · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Smouha SC · 1-0 (W)
Al Ittihad
- 2026-10-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghazl El Mehalla · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs El Gouna FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wadi Degla · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AL Masry · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Asyut Petrol · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Future FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Al Ittihad | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Masr | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | National Bank of Egypt | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Smouha SC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Petrojet | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | AL Masry | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Wadi Degla | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | El Geish | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Enppi | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 19 | Abu Qair Semad | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | El Gouna FC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.