Borg El Arab Stadium · Referee M. El Zenary · Analysis updated 07:18 UTC
AL Masry vs Smouha SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for AL Masry and 0.70 for Smouha SC, a combined total of 1.62. That distribution gives AL Masry the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 22% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.6% probability
Expected goals
0.92 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
AL Masry home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Smouha SC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–019.8%
- 1–018.2%
- 0–113.9%
- 1–112.7%
- 2–08.4%
Recent form
AL Masry
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ittihad · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrojet · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyramids FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs El Mokawloon · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Smouha SC · 1-0 (W)
Smouha SC
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ghazl El Mehalla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs El Geish · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceramica Cleopatra · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahly · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Asyut Petrol · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · AL Masry 1-0 Smouha SC (Premier League)
- 2026-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · AL Masry 1-0 Smouha SC (Premier League)
- 2026-01-05T14:00:00.000Z · AL Masry 2-0 Smouha SC (League Cup)
- 2025-10-22T17:00:00.000Z · AL Masry 0-0 Smouha SC (Premier League)
- 2025-02-27T14:00:00.000Z · AL Masry 3-0 Smouha SC (Premier League)
- 2024-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · AL Masry 0-1 Smouha SC (Premier League)
- 2024-03-05T17:00:00.000Z · AL Masry 2-0 Smouha SC (Premier League)
- 2023-07-15T16:00:00.000Z · AL Masry 0-1 Smouha SC (Premier League)
- 2023-02-07T12:45:00.000Z · AL Masry 1-1 Smouha SC (Premier League)
- 2022-05-16T19:00:00.000Z · AL Masry 1-2 Smouha SC (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Al Ahly | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Future FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Ittihad | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | National Bank of Egypt | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | El Mokawloon | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Petrojet | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Masr | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Olympic El Qanah | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | AL Masry | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Smouha SC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | El Geish | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Wadi Degla | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Enppi | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 18 | Abu Qair Semad | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
| 19 | El Gouna FC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 22%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.