Al Merreikh Stadium · Analysis updated 15:50 UTC
Al Merreikh vs Al Hilal Omdurman Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al Merreikh and 1.38 for Al Hilal Omdurman, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Al Hilal Omdurman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Merreikh home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Al Hilal Omdurman away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Al Merreikh
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amagaju · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Power Dynamos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Power Dynamos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorilla · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs APR · 1-2 (L)
Al Hilal Omdurman
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Kigali · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aigle Noir · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Aigle Noir · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jamus · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs GOR Mahia · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · Al Merreikh 1-1 Al Hilal Omdurman (National Soccer League)
- 2026-02-17T16:30:00.000Z · Al Merreikh 2-1 Al Hilal Omdurman (National Soccer League)
- 2025-07-22T16:45:00.000Z · Al Merreikh 0-4 Al Hilal Omdurman (Sudani Premier League)
- 2025-02-26T19:50:00.000Z · Al Merreikh 1-0 Al Hilal Omdurman (Premier League)
- 2024-10-19T19:50:00.000Z · Al Merreikh 0-2 Al Hilal Omdurman (Premier League)
- 2022-12-29T16:30:00.000Z · Al Merreikh 0-0 Al Hilal Omdurman (Sudani Premier League)
- 2022-06-24T17:15:00.000Z · Al Merreikh 1-0 Al Hilal Omdurman (Sudani Premier League)
- 2022-05-14T17:00:00.000Z · Al Merreikh 0-0 Al Hilal Omdurman (Sudani Premier League)
- 2022-03-11T13:00:00.000Z · Al Merreikh 0-1 Al Hilal Omdurman (CAF Champions League)
- 2022-02-25T16:00:00.000Z · Al Merreikh 2-1 Al Hilal Omdurman (CAF Champions League)
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Marines | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Amagaju | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Mukura | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Gorilla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Etincelles | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | Bugesera | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Sunrise | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 6 |
| 9 | Police | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Gasogi United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Musanze | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Etoile de l'Est | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.