Al Merreikh Stadium · Analysis updated 13:32 UTC
Al Merreikh vs Gorilla Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.54 expected goals for Al Merreikh and 0.53 for Gorilla, a combined total of 1.07. That distribution gives Al Merreikh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 28%, with the draw at 45%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 9% for over 2.5 goals and 17% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 34%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 28% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.8% probability
Expected goals
0.54 – 0.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Merreikh home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Gorilla away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 28% / 45% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.54 goals for Al Merreikh and 0.53 for Gorilla, a combined 1.07 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
55%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–034.4%
- 1–018.5%
- 0–118.2%
- 1–19.8%
- 2–05.0%
Recent form
Al Merreikh
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Amagaju · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Power Dynamos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Power Dynamos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorilla · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs APR · 1-2 (L)
Gorilla
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayon Sports · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Etincelles · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kiyovu Sports · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Merreikh · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Etincelles · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gicumbi | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Marines | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Amagaju | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Mukura | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Gorilla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Etincelles | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | Bugesera | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Sunrise | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 6 |
| 9 | Police | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Kiyovu Sports | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Gasogi United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | AS Kigali | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | APR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Musanze | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Etoile de l'Est | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Al Merreikh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rayon Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 17% and over 2.5 goals at 9%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.