· Analysis updated 02:10 UTC
Al Mesaimeer vs Al-Gharafa B Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.51 expected goals for Al Mesaimeer and 0.66 for Al-Gharafa B, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Al Mesaimeer the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Mesaimeer win
77.5% probability
Expected goals
2.51 – 0.66
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Mesaimeer home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Mesaimeer to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 15% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.51 goals for Al Mesaimeer and 0.66 for Al-Gharafa B, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 45%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.2%
- 3–011.0%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–18.8%
- 3–17.3%
Recent form
Al Mesaimeer
- 2026-10-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Gharafa · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Waab · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Kharaitiyat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T14:15:00.000Z · H vs UMM Salal · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-24T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Muaither SC · 1-0 (W)
Al-Gharafa B
- 2026-10-14T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Mesaimeer · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Muaither SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Al-Markhiya · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Bidda SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2017-04-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Markhiya · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Al Kharaitiyat | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Al Mesaimeer | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Al Bidda SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Waab | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | UMM Salal | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 7 |
| 7 | Muaither SC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Al-Khor | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Qatar U23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Al Shamal II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Gharafa B | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 12 | Al Rayyan SC B | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Mesaimeer win, at 77.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.