· Analysis updated 14:06 UTC
Al-Nahda vs Al Musannah Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Al-Nahda and 0.91 for Al Musannah, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Al-Nahda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Nahda win
57.1% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Nahda home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Musannah away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.2%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–010.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.0%
Recent form
Al-Nahda
- 2026-10-14T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Faisaly · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sohar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:35:00.000Z · A vs Ibri · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T13:35:00.000Z · H vs Saham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Taawon · 1-1 (D)
Al Musannah
- 2026-10-01T14:25:00.000Z · H vs Ibri · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T14:35:00.000Z · A vs Saham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Al-Shabab · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Nasr · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:55:00.000Z · H vs Oman Club · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T14:10:00.000Z · Al-Nahda 3-1 Al Musannah (FA Cup)
- 2025-12-29T12:50:00.000Z · Al-Nahda 3-1 Al Musannah (Sultan Cup)
- 2023-05-19T15:30:00.000Z · Al-Nahda 3-0 Al Musannah (Professional League)
- 2022-12-09T14:30:00.000Z · Al-Nahda 1-1 Al Musannah (Professional League)
- 2022-10-27T00:00:00.000Z · Al-Nahda 3-1 Al Musannah (Sultan Cup)
- 2022-02-25T13:25:00.000Z · Al-Nahda 2-0 Al Musannah (Professional League)
- 2021-10-16T13:05:00.000Z · Al-Nahda 3-1 Al Musannah (Professional League)
- 2015-02-14T14:30:00.000Z · Al-Nahda 1-1 Al Musannah (Professional League)
- 2014-09-12T13:45:00.000Z · Al-Nahda 2-2 Al Musannah (Professional League)
FA Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Nahda win, at 57.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.