· Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Al-Nahda vs Saham Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for Al-Nahda and 0.82 for Saham, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Al-Nahda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Nahda win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 0.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Nahda home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Saham away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Nahda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 25% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.57 goals for Al-Nahda and 0.82 for Saham, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.3%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–011.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.1%
Recent form
Al-Nahda
- 2026-10-14T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Faisaly · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sohar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:35:00.000Z · A vs Ibri · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T13:35:00.000Z · H vs Saham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Taawon · 1-1 (D)
Saham
- 2026-09-25T14:35:00.000Z · H vs Al Musannah · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T13:35:00.000Z · A vs Al-Nahda · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-10T13:40:00.000Z · A vs Ibri · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Bahla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Smail · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FA Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Nahda win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.