· Analysis updated 17:45 UTC
Al Nairyah vs Al Gottah Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Al Nairyah and 1.19 for Al Gottah, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Al Nairyah the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Nairyah win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Nairyah home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Gottah away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Nairyah to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Al Nairyah and 1.19 for Al Gottah, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.8%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
Al Nairyah
- 2026-10-09T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Wajj · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-07T12:35:00.000Z · H vs Al Gottah · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Kawkab · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-27T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Qous · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-03-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Arar · 3-2 (W)
Al Gottah
- 2026-04-07T12:35:00.000Z · A vs Al Nairyah · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Saqer · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-27T13:05:00.000Z · H vs Arar · 6-4 (W)
- 2026-03-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Qous · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Mudhar Club · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Entesar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Al-Kawkab | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Al Sharq | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 4 | Al-Wajj | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Al Rayan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Al Shoalah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Arar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Rawdhah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Baish | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Al Safa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Najran | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Arabi SC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Al Taraji | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Al Qous | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Al Jubail | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | Al Baten | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 17 | Al Hada | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Afif | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 19 | Al Qwarah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 20 | Al Sahel | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 21 | Al Loa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 22 | Jubbah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 23 | Jerash | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Al Nairyah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Qilwah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Al Najoom | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Al Gottah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Al-Washm | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Nairyah win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.