· Analysis updated 07:39 UTC
Al Najma vs Al-Hidd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Al Najma and 2.25 for Al-Hidd, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Al-Hidd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Hidd win
61.0% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Najma home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Hidd to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 19% / 20% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Al Najma and 2.25 for Al-Hidd, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.6%
- 1–18.6%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–37.2%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Al Najma
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Hidd · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sitra · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs East Riffa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Malkiya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Khalidiya · 2-7 (L)
Al-Hidd
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Hidd win, at 61.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.