King Abdullah Sports City Stadium · Referee E. Al Shaqaq · Analysis updated 02:34 UTC
Al Najma vs Al Jabalain Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Al Najma and 1.00 for Al Jabalain, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Al Najma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Najma win
70.0% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Najma home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Jabalain away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–07.9%
- 3–17.9%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
Al Najma
- 2026-10-20T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Hajer · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-12T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Damac · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:35:00.000Z · A vs Al Anwar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:20:00.000Z · H vs Al-Raed · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:20:00.000Z · A vs Al Okhdood · 2-2 (D)
Al Jabalain
- 2026-09-20T15:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Orubah · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Hajer · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T16:05:00.000Z · H vs Al Wehda Club · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T17:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Najma · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-27T16:20:00.000Z · H vs Al Jeel · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-04-21T16:10:00.000Z · Al Najma 2-1 Al Jabalain (Division 1)
- 2024-12-09T12:20:00.000Z · Al Najma 0-1 Al Jabalain (Division 1)
- 2024-04-24T16:15:00.000Z · Al Najma 2-0 Al Jabalain (Division 1)
- 2023-12-05T12:20:00.000Z · Al Najma 3-0 Al Jabalain (Division 1)
- 2016-12-24T11:25:00.000Z · Al Najma 1-0 Al Jabalain (Division 2)
- 2016-10-21T11:25:00.000Z · Al Najma 1-2 Al Jabalain (Division 2)
Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ula | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | Al Jabalain | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Al Zulfi | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Al Najma | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Wehda Club | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 6 | Al-Adalah | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Damac | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Al Anwar | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Al Saqer | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Al-Raed | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Al Taee | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 10 |
| 12 | Al Orubah | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Jeddah Club | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Al Okhdood | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Al Jandal | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Hajer | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Bukayriyah | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Al Jeel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Najma win, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.