· Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Al Najma vs Manama Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.72 expected goals for Al Najma and 1.63 for Manama, a combined total of 4.35. That distribution gives Al Najma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Najma win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
2.72 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Najma home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Najma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 18% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.72 goals for Al Najma and 1.63 for Manama, a combined 4.35 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 81% and both teams to score at 75%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.8%
- 3–17.1%
- 2–26.3%
- 3–25.7%
- 1–15.7%
Recent form
Al Najma
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Hidd · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sitra · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs East Riffa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Malkiya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Khalidiya · 2-7 (L)
Manama
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Najma win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.