· Analysis updated 13:33 UTC
Al Najma vs Muharraq Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Al Najma and 1.92 for Muharraq, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Muharraq the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Muharraq win
48.4% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Muharraq away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Muharraq to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 29% / 22% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Al Najma and 1.92 for Muharraq, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 65%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 1–29.2%
- 2–17.0%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Al Najma
Muharraq
- 2026-09-15T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Arkadag · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Manama · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ittifaq Maqaba · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-16T14:30:00.000Z · H vs A'Ali · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Muharraq win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.