Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah Stadium · Analysis updated 15:18 UTC
Al Nasar vs Al Jahra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al Nasar and 2.33 for Al Jahra, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Al Jahra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Al Jahra win
56.0% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 2.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Nasar home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Jahra away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.8%
- 1–17.6%
- 1–36.9%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–25.9%
Recent form
Al Nasar
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Salmiyah · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-26T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Jahra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-21T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Tadhamon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-17T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-06-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Kazma · 1-2 (L)
Al Jahra
- 2026-09-05T15:35:00.000Z · A vs Al Kuwait · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Arabi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-26T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-26T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Nasar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-21T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-26T17:45:00.000Z · Al Nasar 1-1 Al Jahra (Premier League)
- 2026-05-14T14:40:00.000Z · Al Nasar 2-0 Al Jahra (Premier League)
- 2025-10-26T14:35:00.000Z · Al Nasar 0-1 Al Jahra (Premier League)
- 2024-03-02T13:55:00.000Z · Al Nasar 2-0 Al Jahra (Premier League)
- 2023-11-25T14:20:00.000Z · Al Nasar 3-0 Al Jahra (Premier League)
- 2023-05-07T17:30:00.000Z · Al Nasar 4-1 Al Jahra (Premier League)
- 2023-04-10T18:30:00.000Z · Al Nasar 2-1 Al Jahra (Premier League)
- 2023-02-21T15:10:00.000Z · Al Nasar 1-1 Al Jahra (Premier League)
- 2023-01-23T13:30:00.000Z · Al Nasar 1-0 Al Jahra (Emir Cup)
- 2022-10-07T17:15:00.000Z · Al Nasar 2-1 Al Jahra (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kuwait | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
| 2 | Al Qadsia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Kazma | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Al Shabab | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Fahaheel | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Al Salmiyah | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Al Nasar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 6 |
| 8 | Al Jahra | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Sahel | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Arabi | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Sulaibikhat | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Tadhamon | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Jahra win, at 56.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.