· Analysis updated 00:12 UTC
Al Nasr vs Bahla Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Al Nasr and 2.98 for Bahla, a combined total of 4.27. That distribution gives Bahla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bahla win
71.6% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 2.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Nasr home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bahla away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bahla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 14% / 15% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Al Nasr and 2.98 for Bahla, a combined 4.27 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
28%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.0%
- 1–38.0%
- 0–26.2%
- 0–36.2%
- 1–45.9%
Recent form
Al Nasr
- 2026-10-01T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Smail · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-25T13:20:00.000Z · A vs Fanja · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Bahla · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Musannah · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Dhofar · 2-1 (W)
Bahla
- 2026-08-30T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Seeb · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-24T13:50:00.000Z · H vs Dhofar · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-18T13:55:00.000Z · A vs Sur · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T15:25:00.000Z · A vs Smail · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-18T15:20:00.000Z · H vs Al-Nahda · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FA Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bahla win, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.