Al Maktoum Stadium · Referee M. Alharmoodi · Analysis updated 10:15 UTC
Al Nasr vs Hatta SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.03 for Hatta SC, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Al Nasr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Nasr win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Nasr home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hatta SC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Nasr to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 22% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Al Nasr and 1.03 for Hatta SC, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–09.7%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
Al Nasr
- 2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Riffa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Hatta SC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Dubai United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T13:40:00.000Z · A vs Al-Jazira · 1-1 (D)
Hatta SC
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dubai United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:05:00.000Z · A vs Al Nasr · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-08T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Nasr · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-01T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Dubai United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Nasr win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.