· Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Al Nasr vs Smail Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Al Nasr and 0.61 for Smail, a combined total of 2.27. That distribution gives Al Nasr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Nasr win
62.8% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 0.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Nasr home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Nasr to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 24% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Al Nasr and 0.61 for Smail, a combined 2.27 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 37%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.1%
- 2–014.2%
- 1–110.5%
- 0–010.3%
- 2–18.7%
Recent form
Al Nasr
- 2026-10-01T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Smail · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-25T13:20:00.000Z · A vs Fanja · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Bahla · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Musannah · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Dhofar · 2-1 (W)
Smail
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Professional League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Nasr win, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.