· Analysis updated 07:29 UTC
Al Nasr vs Smail Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.73 expected goals for Al Nasr and 2.30 for Smail, a combined total of 5.03. That distribution gives Al Nasr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 84% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Nasr win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
2.73 – 2.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Nasr home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Nasr to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 18% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.73 goals for Al Nasr and 2.30 for Smail, a combined 5.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 88% and both teams to score at 84%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.5%
- 3–25.9%
- 2–15.6%
- 3–15.1%
- 2–34.9%
Recent form
Al Nasr
- 2026-10-01T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Smail · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-25T13:20:00.000Z · A vs Fanja · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Bahla · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Musannah · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Dhofar · 2-1 (W)
Smail
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FA Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Nasr win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 84% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.