Zabeel Stadium · Referee H. Choi · Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Al-Nassr vs Al Ahli Doha Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.18 for Al Ahli Doha, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Al-Nassr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Nassr win
57.3% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Nassr home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Ahli Doha away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Nassr to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 21% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Al-Nassr and 1.18 for Al Ahli Doha, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–08.3%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
Al-Nassr
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Diriyah · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ain · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Khaleej Saihat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Abha · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ittihad FC · 1-2 (L)
Al Ahli Doha
- 2026-09-29T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Markhiya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Shahaniya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Rayyan SC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Qatar SC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Lusail City · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AFC Champions League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Wahda FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Nasaf | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Khalidiya | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Al Kuwait | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Arkadag | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Al-Jazira | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Gol Gohar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Muharraq | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Al-Nahda | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Al Taawon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Al Faisaly | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Al Shorta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Al Hussein | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | East Bengal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Al Seeb | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Persib Bandung | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Viettel | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Melbourne Victory | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | FC Seoul | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 1 | Adelaide United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Home United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | BG Pathum United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Wofoo Tai Po | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Shanghai Shenhua | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Tampines Rovers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 4 | Svay Rieng | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 1 | Phnom Penh Crown | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Gangwon FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Kitchee | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Kuching FA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Nassr win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.