Al-Awwal Park · Analysis updated 14:05 UTC
Al-Nassr vs Al-Wasl FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.01 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.49 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Al-Nassr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Al-Nassr win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Nassr home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Wasl FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Nassr to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.01 goals for Al-Nassr and 1.49 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–26.8%
- 2–06.1%
Recent form
Al-Nassr
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Diriyah · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ain · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Khaleej Saihat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Abha · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ittihad FC · 1-2 (L)
Al-Wasl FC
- 2026-10-16T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Baniyas SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ahli Jeddah · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Khorfakkan · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad Kalba · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Ain · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Neftchi | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Al-Nassr | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Pakhtakor | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Al Shamal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Al-Ittihad FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Tractor Sazi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Al-Gharafa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Al-Wasl FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 15 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 16 | Al Sadd | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 1 | Kashima | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Gamba Osaka | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 3 | Vissel Kobe | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Beijing Guoan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Daejeon Citizen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Kyoto Sanga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Jeonbuk Motors | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Buriram United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Ratchaburi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 13 | Công An Nhân Dân | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 14 | Pohang Steelers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 15 | Port FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 16 | Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Nassr win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.