Al-Awwal Park · Referee Ma Ning, China · Analysis updated 17:50 UTC
Al-Nassr vs Neftchi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.61 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.74 for Neftchi, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Al-Nassr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Nassr win
77.4% probability
Expected goals
2.61 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Nassr home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Neftchi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Nassr to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 14% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.61 goals for Al-Nassr and 0.74 for Neftchi, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.9%
- 3–010.4%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–18.8%
- 3–17.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 51.6% vs market 48.5%, edge +3.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 48.5% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +3.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 4.40 | 21.8% | 22.7% | 4.41 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.05 | 91.2% | 91.8% | 1.09 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.20 | 77.3% | 77.4% | 1.29 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 6.50 | 14.3% | 14.4% | 6.94 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 11.00 | 8.4% | 8.3% | 12.05 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.10 | 87.0% | 85.7% | 1.17 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.80 | 51.5% | 48.4% | 2.07 | -3.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Al-Nassr
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Diriyah · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ain · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Khaleej Saihat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Abha · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ittihad FC · 1-2 (L)
Neftchi
- 2026-10-07T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Xorazm · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Surkhon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nasaf · 2-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Neftchi | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Al-Nassr | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Pakhtakor | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Al Shamal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Al-Ittihad FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Tractor Sazi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Al-Gharafa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Al-Wasl FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 15 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 16 | Al Sadd | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 1 | Kashima | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Gamba Osaka | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 3 | Vissel Kobe | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Beijing Guoan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Daejeon Citizen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Kyoto Sanga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Jeonbuk Motors | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Buriram United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Ratchaburi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 13 | Công An Nhân Dân | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 14 | Pohang Steelers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 15 | Port FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 16 | Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Nassr win, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.