Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium · Analysis updated 10:39 UTC
Al Nejmeh vs Racing Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Al Nejmeh and 0.87 for Racing, a combined total of 3.01. That distribution gives Al Nejmeh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Nejmeh win
66.4% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Nejmeh home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Racing away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Nejmeh to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 19% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Al Nejmeh and 0.87 for Racing, a combined 3.01 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.2%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–08.0%
Recent form
Al Nejmeh
- 2026-10-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Arabi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Wathba · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Istiqlol · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tadamon Sour · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Akhaa Al Ahli · 2-0 (W)
Racing
- 2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Reyady Abaseya · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tadamon Sour · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Reyady Abaseya · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tadamon Sour · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Reyady Abaseya · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jwaaya FC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Tadamon Sour | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Safa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Al Ahed | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Tripoli SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 6 | Al Nejmeh | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Al Ansar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Mabarrah | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 9 | Al Hikma | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 10 | Reyady Abaseya | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 11 | Shabab Al Sahel | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 12 | Al Akhaa Al Ahli | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Nejmeh win, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.