Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City · Referee O. Abuzaid · Analysis updated 07:02 UTC
Al Okhdood vs Al Najma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 2.01 for Al Najma, a combined total of 3.34. That distribution gives Al Najma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Najma win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 2.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Okhdood home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Al Najma away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Najma to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 25% / 22% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Al Okhdood and 2.01 for Al Najma, a combined 3.34 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 1–19.5%
- 0–27.2%
- 0–17.1%
- 1–36.4%
Recent form
Al Okhdood
- 2026-09-14T16:05:00.000Z · A vs Al Wehda Club · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:20:00.000Z · H vs Al Najma · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-31T16:05:00.000Z · A vs Al Saqer · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-26T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Al Bukayriyah · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:20:00.000Z · A vs Al Taee · 2-0 (W)
Al Najma
- 2026-10-20T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Hajer · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-12T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Damac · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:35:00.000Z · A vs Al Anwar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T17:20:00.000Z · H vs Al-Raed · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:20:00.000Z · A vs Al Okhdood · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ula | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | Al Jabalain | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Al Zulfi | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Al Najma | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Wehda Club | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 6 | Al-Adalah | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Damac | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Al Anwar | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Al Saqer | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Al-Raed | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 11 | Al Taee | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 10 |
| 12 | Al Orubah | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Jeddah Club | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Al Okhdood | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Al Jandal | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Hajer | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Bukayriyah | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Al Jeel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Najma win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.