Mohammed Al Hamad Stadium · Analysis updated 19:26 UTC
Al Qadsia vs Al Kuwait Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al Qadsia and 1.92 for Al Kuwait, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Al Kuwait the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Kuwait win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Qadsia home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Kuwait away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–17.0%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.4%
Recent form
Al Qadsia
- 2026-09-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Fahaheel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T15:35:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasar · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T17:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Kuwait · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Fahaheel · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-29T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Kuwait · 0-0 (D)
Al Kuwait
- 2026-10-09T14:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Nasar · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Wahda FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:35:00.000Z · H vs Al Jahra · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T17:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Qadsia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-25T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Arabi · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-31T17:55:00.000Z · Al Qadsia 0-1 Al Kuwait (Premier League)
- 2026-06-29T17:45:00.000Z · Al Qadsia 0-0 Al Kuwait (Premier League)
- 2026-02-06T15:00:00.000Z · Al Qadsia 1-1 Al Kuwait (Premier League)
- 2026-02-01T16:30:00.000Z · Al Qadsia 1-1 Al Kuwait (Super Cup)
- 2025-09-26T15:05:00.000Z · Al Qadsia 1-2 Al Kuwait (Premier League)
- 2025-05-29T17:30:00.000Z · Al Qadsia 0-1 Al Kuwait (Emir Cup)
- 2025-05-06T17:10:00.000Z · Al Qadsia 1-3 Al Kuwait (Premier League)
- 2025-01-28T16:15:00.000Z · Al Qadsia 1-1 Al Kuwait (Super Cup)
- 2025-01-09T16:50:00.000Z · Al Qadsia 2-1 Al Kuwait (Premier League)
- 2024-08-08T17:30:00.000Z · Al Qadsia 0-1 Al Kuwait (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kuwait | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 16 |
| 2 | Kazma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Al Nasar | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 4 | Al Fahaheel | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Al Qadsia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Salmiyah | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Al Shabab | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Al Jahra | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Sahel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Arabi | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Sulaibikhat | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Tadhamon | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Kuwait win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.