· Analysis updated 09:27 UTC
Al Qadsia vs Al Sahel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Al Qadsia and 0.45 for Al Sahel, a combined total of 1.45. That distribution gives Al Qadsia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 35%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 18% for over 2.5 goals and 23% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Al Qadsia win
48.4% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 0.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Qadsia home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Sahel away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Qadsia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 35% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Al Qadsia and 0.45 for Al Sahel, a combined 1.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
65%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–023.5%
- 1–023.5%
- 2–011.7%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–110.6%
Recent form
Al Qadsia
- 2026-09-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Fahaheel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T15:35:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasar · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T17:55:00.000Z · H vs Al Kuwait · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Fahaheel · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-29T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Kuwait · 0-0 (D)
Al Sahel
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Fahaheel · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:35:00.000Z · A vs Al Salmiyah · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-01T15:40:00.000Z · A vs Kazma · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-27T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Sulaibikhat · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-20T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Yarmouk · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kuwait | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
| 2 | Al Qadsia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Kazma | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Al Shabab | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Fahaheel | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Al Salmiyah | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Al Nasar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 6 |
| 8 | Al Jahra | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Sahel | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Arabi | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Sulaibikhat | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Tadhamon | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Qadsia win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 23% and over 2.5 goals at 18%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.