· Analysis updated 19:52 UTC
Al Qalah vs Al Taraji Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Al Qalah and 1.18 for Al Taraji, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Al Qalah the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Al Qalah win
55.9% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Qalah home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Taraji away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Qalah to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 22% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Al Qalah and 1.18 for Al Taraji, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
Al Qalah
- 2026-04-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hajer · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Wajj · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-27T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Ohod · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Loa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Rayan · 0-1 (L)
Al Taraji
- 2026-04-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Rawdhah · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-04-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ain · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-03-31T13:05:00.000Z · A vs Afif · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Entesar · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Washm · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Sharq | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 2 | Al Entesar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Al-Wajj | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Baish | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Al-Kawkab | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Al Hada | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Al Rawdhah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Al Sahel | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Taraji | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Arabi SC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Al-Ain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Qalah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Al Rayan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Najran | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Al Qous | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Al Shoalah | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Arar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Al Najoom | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 19 | Al Safa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 20 | Al Baten | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 21 | Al Jubail | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 22 | Jubbah | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 23 | Mudhar Club | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 24 | Al Nairyah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | Qilwah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Afif | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 27 | Al Gottah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Al Loa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 | Al Qwarah | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 | Jerash | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 | Al-Washm | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Qalah win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.