Basra Sports City · Referee Jingyuan Jin, China · Analysis updated 05:33 UTC
Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Ain Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Al Quwa Al Jawiya and 2.43 for Al Ain, a combined total of 3.54. That distribution gives Al Ain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Ain win
66.3% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 2.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Quwa Al Jawiya home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Ain away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Ain to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 16% / 18% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Al Quwa Al Jawiya and 2.43 for Al Ain, a combined 3.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–17.8%
- 1–37.7%
- 0–17.1%
Recent form
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mosul · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Diyala · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T13:45:00.000Z · A vs Neftchi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Zawra'a · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Karbala · 3-2 (W)
Al Ain
- 2026-10-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-12T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T13:10:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad Kalba · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T13:15:00.000Z · H vs Ajman · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Esteghlal FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Neftchi | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Al-Nassr | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Pakhtakor | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Al Shamal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Al-Ittihad FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Tractor Sazi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Al-Gharafa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | Al-Wasl FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 15 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 16 | Al Sadd | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 1 | Kashima | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Gamba Osaka | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 3 | Vissel Kobe | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Beijing Guoan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Johor Darul Takzim FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Daejeon Citizen | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Kyoto Sanga | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Jeonbuk Motors | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Buriram United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12 | Ratchaburi | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 13 | Công An Nhân Dân | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 14 | Pohang Steelers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 15 | Port FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 16 | Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Ain win, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.