King Abdullah Sports City Stadium · Analysis updated 14:06 UTC
Al-Raed vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.57 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Hilal Saudi FC win
45.7% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.57
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Raed home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 25% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Al-Raed and 1.57 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined 2.79 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–27.6%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
Al-Raed
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Jeddah Club · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Zulfi · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:20:00.000Z · A vs Al Najma · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:50:00.000Z · H vs Al Jeel · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T17:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Ula · 0-2 (L)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
- 2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Sadd · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Gharafa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Taawon · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NEOM · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
King's Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kholood | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Al Taawon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Al Ula | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Al-Ittihad FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | NEOM | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Okhdood | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Al Riyadh | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Al-Fayha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Wehda Club | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Al-Hazm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Al Jabalain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Abha | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Al Orubah | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Al Bukayriyah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Al Shabab | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Al Anwar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Al-Ettifaq | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Al-Faisaly FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Al Zulfi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 25 | Al-Adalah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 26 | Al-Raed | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Al Diriyah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 28 | Al Najma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 29 | Al-Fateh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 30 | Damac | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 | Al Taee | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 32 | Jeddah Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Hilal Saudi FC win, at 45.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.