· Analysis updated 12:27 UTC
Al Rayyan SC B vs Al-Markhiya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.73 expected goals for Al Rayyan SC B and 2.75 for Al-Markhiya, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives Al-Markhiya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Markhiya win
79.5% probability
Expected goals
0.73 – 2.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Rayyan SC B home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Markhiya away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Markhiya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 7% / 13% / 80% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.73 goals for Al Rayyan SC B and 2.75 for Al-Markhiya, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
21%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.6%
- 0–310.7%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–18.5%
- 1–37.8%
Recent form
Al Rayyan SC B
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Markhiya · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Muaither SC · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-25T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Waab · 0-1 (L)
- 2017-04-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs El Jaish SC B · 3-2 (W)
- 2017-03-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Wakrah B · 0-3 (L)
Al-Markhiya
- 2026-09-29T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli Doha · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Lusail City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Rayyan SC B · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Gharafa B · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Khor · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Markhiya | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Al Kharaitiyat | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 3 | Al Mesaimeer | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Al Bidda SC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Waab | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | UMM Salal | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 7 |
| 7 | Muaither SC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Al-Khor | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Qatar U23 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Al Shamal II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 11 | Al-Gharafa B | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 12 | Al Rayyan SC B | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Markhiya win, at 79.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.