Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium · Referee Y. Al Mulla · Analysis updated 07:05 UTC
Al-Rayyan SC vs Al Faisaly Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Al-Rayyan SC and 0.62 for Al Faisaly, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Al-Rayyan SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al-Rayyan SC win
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 0.62
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Rayyan SC home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Faisaly away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Rayyan SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 21% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Al-Rayyan SC and 0.62 for Al Faisaly, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.4%
- 2–014.5%
- 1–19.6%
- 3–09.1%
- 2–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 14.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 60.9% vs market 48.6%, edge +12.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 48.6% | 60.9% | 1.64 | +12.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.07 | 87.9% | 88.6% | 1.13 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 1.30 | 67.4% | 67.6% | 1.48 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.20 | 20.9% | 21.0% | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.90 | 32.4% | 32.5% | 3.08 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 7.50 | 11.7% | 11.5% | 8.70 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 79.7% | 79.1% | 1.26 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 51.4% | 39.1% | 2.56 | -12.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Al-Rayyan SC
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Taawon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Qatar SC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-28T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Sailiya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Qatar SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-16T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Faisaly · 4-3 (W)
Al Faisaly
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ramtha · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Nahda · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Salt · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Buqa'a · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Rayyan SC · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-16T18:15:00.000Z · Al-Rayyan SC 4-3 Al Faisaly (AFC Champions League Two)
AFC Champions League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Wahda FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Al Kuwait | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Nasaf | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Khalidiya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Al-Jazira | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Arkadag | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Muharraq | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Gol Gohar | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Al Taawon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Al-Rayyan SC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Al Faisaly | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Al-Nahda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 1 | Al Shorta | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Al Hussein | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | East Bengal | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Al Seeb | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Persib Bandung | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Melbourne Victory | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Viettel | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | FC Seoul | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Adelaide United | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Home United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | BG Pathum United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Wofoo Tai Po | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Shanghai Shenhua | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Svay Rieng | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | Tampines Rovers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 1 | Phnom Penh Crown | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Kitchee | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Kuching FA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 4 | Gangwon FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al-Rayyan SC win, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.