· Analysis updated 15:08 UTC
Al Riffa vs Al Ittifaq Maqaba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Al Riffa and 0.77 for Al Ittifaq Maqaba, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Al Riffa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Riffa win
55.4% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Ittifaq Maqaba away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Riffa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 26% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Al Riffa and 0.77 for Al Ittifaq Maqaba, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.3%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–011.7%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Al Riffa
Al Ittifaq Maqaba
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Riffa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-07T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahli · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-02-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sitra · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-01-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ittihad · 5-1 (W)
- 2025-02-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Riffa win, at 55.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.