Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium · Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
Al Sadd vs Al-Duhail SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Al Sadd and 1.28 for Al-Duhail SC, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Al Sadd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Al Sadd win
64.5% probability
Expected goals
2.53 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Sadd home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Duhail SC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–17.2%
- 2–07.1%
- 3–06.0%
Recent form
Al Sadd
- 2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Esteghlal FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Sailiya · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Gharafa · 4-1 (W)
Al-Duhail SC
- 2026-09-28T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Shahaniya · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Shahaniya · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Rayyan SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-05T17:00:00.000Z · Al Sadd 4-1 Al-Duhail SC (Emir Cup)
- 2026-02-26T18:30:00.000Z · Al Sadd 3-1 Al-Duhail SC (Stars League)
- 2025-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · Al Sadd 0-0 Al-Duhail SC (Stars League)
- 2025-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · Al Sadd 2-2 Al-Duhail SC (Qatar Cup)
- 2025-02-22T16:00:00.000Z · Al Sadd 2-0 Al-Duhail SC (Stars League)
- 2024-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · Al Sadd 1-5 Al-Duhail SC (Stars League)
- 2024-05-18T16:00:00.000Z · Al Sadd 1-0 Al-Duhail SC (Emir Cup)
- 2024-04-05T18:30:00.000Z · Al Sadd 1-3 Al-Duhail SC (Stars League)
- 2023-12-13T16:30:00.000Z · Al Sadd 3-1 Al-Duhail SC (Stars League)
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Al Sadd | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 |
| 3 | Al-Duhail SC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Al-Arabi SC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Al Shamal | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Al Ahli Doha | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Al Shahaniya | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Lusail City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Al Wakrah | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 11 | Qatar SC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 2 |
| 12 | Al-Sailiya | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Sadd win, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.