Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium · Analysis updated 15:07 UTC
Al Sadd vs Al-Gharafa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.76 expected goals for Al Sadd and 1.45 for Al-Gharafa, a combined total of 5.21. That distribution gives Al Sadd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Sadd win
78.5% probability
Expected goals
3.76 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Sadd home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Gharafa away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Sadd to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 11% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.76 goals for Al Sadd and 1.45 for Al-Gharafa, a combined 5.21 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.0%
- 4–16.6%
- 2–15.6%
- 3–25.1%
- 5–15.0%
Recent form
Al Sadd
- 2026-09-14T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Esteghlal FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Sailiya · 6-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Gharafa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Gharafa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Qatar SC · 6-2 (W)
Al-Gharafa
- 2026-10-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Wakrah · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Mesaimeer · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lusail City · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Sadd · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Al Sadd | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 |
| 3 | Al-Duhail SC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Al-Arabi SC | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Al Shamal | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Al Ahli Doha | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Al Shahaniya | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Lusail City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Al Wakrah | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 11 | Qatar SC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 2 |
| 12 | Al-Sailiya | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Sadd win, at 78.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.