· Analysis updated 15:40 UTC
Al Safa vs Al-Kawkab Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Al Safa and 1.52 for Al-Kawkab, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Al Safa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.9% probability
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Safa home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Safa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 24% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.56 goals for Al Safa and 1.52 for Al-Kawkab, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.3%
- 1–07.2%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Al Safa
- 2026-04-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Kawkab · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Qous · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-27T12:35:00.000Z · A vs Mudhar Club · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-03-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Saqer · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-06T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Arar · 2-1 (W)
Al-Kawkab
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Entesar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Al-Kawkab | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Al Sharq | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 4 | Al-Wajj | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Al Rayan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Al Shoalah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Arar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Al Rawdhah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Baish | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Al Safa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Najran | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Arabi SC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Al Taraji | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Al Qous | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Al Jubail | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | Al Baten | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 17 | Al Hada | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Afif | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 19 | Al Qwarah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 20 | Al Sahel | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 21 | Al Loa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 22 | Jubbah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 23 | Jerash | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Al Nairyah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Qilwah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Al Najoom | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Al Gottah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Al-Washm | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.