· Analysis updated 13:04 UTC
Al Sahel vs Al Fahaheel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Al Sahel and 1.45 for Al Fahaheel, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Al Fahaheel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Fahaheel win
47.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Sahel home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Al Fahaheel away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Fahaheel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 26% / 27% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Al Sahel and 1.45 for Al Fahaheel, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 51.6% vs market 47.3%, edge +4.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +4.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.80 | 51.5% | 52.5% | 1.90 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 3.40 | 25.9% | 26.0% | 3.85 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.85 | 47.5% | 47.5% | 2.11 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 26.6% | 26.5% | 3.77 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.25 | 74.2% | 74.0% | 1.35 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.2% | 73.5% | 1.36 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 48.4% | 2.07 | -4.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Al Sahel
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Fahaheel · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:35:00.000Z · A vs Al Salmiyah · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-01T15:40:00.000Z · A vs Kazma · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-27T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Sulaibikhat · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-20T17:10:00.000Z · H vs Yarmouk · 2-3 (L)
Al Fahaheel
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Sahel · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Qadsia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:50:00.000Z · H vs Al Tadhamon · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:40:00.000Z · A vs Al Nasar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Qadsia · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kuwait | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
| 2 | Al Qadsia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Kazma | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Al Shabab | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Al Fahaheel | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Al Salmiyah | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Al Nasar | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 6 |
| 8 | Al Jahra | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Sahel | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Arabi | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Sulaibikhat | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Tadhamon | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Fahaheel win, at 47.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.