· Analysis updated 23:59 UTC
Al-Sailiya vs Al Nasr Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Al-Sailiya and 1.83 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives Al Nasr the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Nasr win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Sailiya home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Nasr to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 24% / 23% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Al-Sailiya and 1.83 for Al Nasr, a combined 2.99 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–28.4%
- 2–16.2%
Recent form
Al-Sailiya
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahli Doha · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-28T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Rayyan SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Wakrah · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Sadd · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 0-2 (L)
Al Nasr
- 2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Baniyas SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:05:00.000Z · H vs Hatta SC · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Riffa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-08T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Hatta SC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Nasr win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.