Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium · Analysis updated 08:00 UTC
Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Al-Sailiya and 2.45 for Lusail City, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Lusail City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lusail City win
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 2.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al-Sailiya home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lusail City away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 0–27.8%
- 1–37.6%
- 1–17.6%
- 0–36.4%
Recent form
Al-Sailiya
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahli Doha · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-28T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Rayyan SC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Wakrah · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Sadd · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Arabi SC · 0-2 (L)
Lusail City
- 2026-10-10T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Shahaniya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Al Waab · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Markhiya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Gharafa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-04T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Al Wakrah · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-02-20T15:15:00.000Z · Al-Sailiya 0-0 Lusail City (Second Division)
- 2024-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · Al-Sailiya 2-3 Lusail City (Second Division)
- 2024-02-28T15:00:00.000Z · Al-Sailiya 1-1 Lusail City (Second Division)
- 2023-10-31T15:00:00.000Z · Al-Sailiya 1-0 Lusail City (Second Division)
- 2023-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · Al-Sailiya 3-2 Lusail City (QFA Cup)
- 2021-04-21T19:00:00.000Z · Al-Sailiya 1-0 Lusail City (QFA Cup)
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Rayyan SC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 14 |
| 2 | Al Sadd | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 12 |
| 3 | Al-Arabi SC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Al-Duhail SC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Al Shamal | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Wakrah | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | Al Ahli Doha | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Al Shahaniya | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 9 | Lusail City | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Al-Gharafa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 11 | Qatar SC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 12 | Al-Sailiya | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lusail City win, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.