· Analysis updated 17:29 UTC
Al Salmiyah vs Al Nasar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al Salmiyah and 1.00 for Al Nasar, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Al Salmiyah the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Salmiyah win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Salmiyah home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Nasar away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.3%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–09.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Away | 3.85 | 23.8% | 25.2% | 3.97 | +1.4 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.25 | 74.7% | 75.8% | 1.32 | +1.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.83 | 50.5% | 51.2% | 1.95 | +0.7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.80 | 50.4% | 50.9% | 1.96 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.89 | 48.5% | 48.8% | 2.05 | +0.3 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.73 | 54.2% | 54.4% | 1.84 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 73.9% | 74.0% | 1.35 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.05 | 45.8% | 45.6% | 2.19 | -0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.83 | 49.6% | 49.1% | 2.04 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 75.7% | 74.8% | 1.34 | -0.9 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.70 | 25.3% | 24.2% | 4.13 | -1.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.8% | 26.0% | 3.85 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Al Salmiyah
- 2026-10-24T14:35:00.000Z · H vs Al Jahra · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T17:05:00.000Z · H vs Al Shabab · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:35:00.000Z · H vs Al Sahel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T17:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Tadhamon · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Nasar · 1-2 (L)
Al Nasar
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Salmiyah · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-26T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Al Jahra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-21T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Tadhamon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-17T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Shabab · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-06-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Kazma · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-26T18:00:00.000Z · Al Salmiyah 1-2 Al Nasar (Premier League)
- 2026-01-14T15:45:00.000Z · Al Salmiyah 1-1 Al Nasar (Premier League)
- 2025-09-19T15:15:00.000Z · Al Salmiyah 2-0 Al Nasar (Premier League)
- 2025-05-26T16:15:00.000Z · Al Salmiyah 3-1 Al Nasar (Emir Cup)
- 2025-01-10T14:35:00.000Z · Al Salmiyah 2-1 Al Nasar (Premier League)
- 2024-08-10T18:20:00.000Z · Al Salmiyah 3-1 Al Nasar (Premier League)
- 2024-05-24T16:15:00.000Z · Al Salmiyah 5-3 Al Nasar (Premier League)
- 2024-04-28T15:55:00.000Z · Al Salmiyah 2-1 Al Nasar (Premier League)
- 2023-12-25T17:00:00.000Z · Al Salmiyah 1-1 Al Nasar (Premier League)
- 2023-08-30T15:45:00.000Z · Al Salmiyah 3-2 Al Nasar (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Kuwait | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 16 |
| 2 | Kazma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 3 | Al Nasar | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 12 |
| 4 | Al Fahaheel | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Al Qadsia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Al Salmiyah | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 | Al Shabab | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Al Jahra | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Sahel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Arabi | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Sulaibikhat | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Tadhamon | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Salmiyah win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.