· Analysis updated 07:48 UTC
Al Saqer vs Arar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Al Saqer and 1.14 for Arar, a combined total of 2.67. That distribution gives Al Saqer the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Saqer win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Saqer home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Saqer to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Al Saqer and 1.14 for Arar, a combined 2.67 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Al Saqer
- 2026-09-18T16:05:00.000Z · A vs Jeddah Club · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:50:00.000Z · H vs Al Anwar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-07T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Adalah · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-31T16:05:00.000Z · H vs Al Okhdood · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-27T17:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Jandal · 1-1 (D)
Arar
- 2026-10-16T12:05:00.000Z · A vs Al Taraji · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Qous · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-04-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mudhar Club · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-27T13:05:00.000Z · A vs Al Gottah · 4-6 (L)
- 2026-03-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Nairyah · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Sharq | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 2 | Al Entesar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Al-Wajj | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | Baish | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Al-Kawkab | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Al Hada | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Al Rawdhah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Al Sahel | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Al Taraji | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Al Arabi SC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 11 | Al-Ain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Al Qalah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Al Rayan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Najran | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Al Qous | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Al Shoalah | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Arar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Al Najoom | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 19 | Al Safa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 20 | Al Baten | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 21 | Al Jubail | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 22 | Jubbah | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 23 | Mudhar Club | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 24 | Al Nairyah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | Qilwah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Afif | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 27 | Al Gottah | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 28 | Al Loa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 | Al Qwarah | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 | Jerash | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 | Al-Washm | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Saqer win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.