Al-Shabab Club Stadium · Referee K. Al Turais · Analysis updated 06:20 UTC
Al Shabab vs Al-Faisaly FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.15 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Al Shabab the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Shabab win
47.2% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Shabab home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Shabab to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 25% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Al Shabab and 1.15 for Al-Faisaly FC, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.1%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
Al Shabab
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Taawon · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Fayha · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T15:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Kholood · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:05:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hazm · 1-1 (D)
Al-Faisaly FC
- 2026-10-15T13:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Kholood · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Al-Ettifaq · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:50:00.000Z · H vs Al-Hazm · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Qadisiyah FC · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 24 |
| 3 | Al-Nassr | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 22 |
| 4 | Al-Ittihad FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 6 | NEOM | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 16 |
| 7 | Al Diriyah | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Al-Ettifaq | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 15 |
| 9 | Al Kholood | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -4 | 12 |
| 11 | Al-Hazm | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 9 |
| 13 | Al Shabab | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Al-Faisaly FC | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 7 |
| 15 | Al-Fayha | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
| 17 | Al Taawon | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 | Abha | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Shabab win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.