Al Shabab vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Al Shabab and 3.15 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 4.30. That distribution gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Al-Hilal Saudi FC win

76.5% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 3.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Al Shabab home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 10% / 13% / 77% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Al Shabab and 3.15 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined 4.30 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Al Shabab win10%

Draw13%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC win77%

Double chance 1X

24%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

90%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals80%

Over 3.5 goals62%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–38.1%
1–27.7%
0–37.1%
0–26.7%
1–46.4%

Recent form

Al Shabab

2026-10-22T14:45:00.000Z · A vs Al-Fateh · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Faisaly FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Taawon · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Fayha · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T15:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Kholood · 1-2 (L)

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2026-10-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Sadd · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Ittihad FC · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-15T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Al-Gharafa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T15:50:00.000Z · A vs Al Taawon · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NEOM · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Pro League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	10	9	0	1	21	27
2	Al-Nassr	10	8	1	1	15	25
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	11	8	1	2	14	25
4	Al-Ittihad FC	10	7	2	1	10	23
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	10	7	0	3	14	21
6	NEOM	11	6	1	4	7	19
7	Al-Ettifaq	11	5	3	3	1	18
8	Al Diriyah	11	4	3	4	-2	15
9	Al Kholood	10	3	3	4	-7	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	11	2	6	3	-7	12
11	Al Riyadh	10	3	3	4	-8	12
12	Al Shabab	10	2	5	3	0	11
13	Al-Hazm	11	2	4	5	-4	10
14	Al-Fayha	11	1	5	5	-7	8
15	Al-Faisaly FC	10	1	4	5	-9	7
16	Al-Fateh	11	1	3	7	-13	6
17	Al Taawon	11	0	4	7	-14	4
18	Abha	9	0	2	7	-11	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Al-Hilal Saudi FC win, at 76.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.