· Analysis updated 10:19 UTC
Al Shabab vs Al Ittifaq Maqaba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.45 for Al Ittifaq Maqaba, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Al Ittifaq Maqaba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Al Shabab home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Ittifaq Maqaba away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Ittifaq Maqaba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 30% / 26% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Al Shabab and 1.45 for Al Ittifaq Maqaba, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.5%
- 0–27.7%
Recent form
Al Shabab
- 2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al-Hidd · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sitra · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Riffa · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bahrain SC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:25:00.000Z · A vs Malkiya · 0-1 (L)
Al Ittifaq Maqaba
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Riffa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-07T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Ahli · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-02-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sitra · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-01-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ittihad · 5-1 (W)
- 2025-02-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Ahli · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.